Does Peer Victimization Predict Loneliness? A Meta-Analysis of Longitudinal Studies

The longitudinal effect of peer victimization on subsequent loneliness, especially after controlling for baseline loneliness, remains unclear, and the potential moderators of this effect have not been systematically examined. This study synthesized longitudinal studies through meta-analysis to estimate this predictive effect and to examine demographic (e.g., gender and age) and methodological factors (e.g., types of peer victimization and time intervals) as moderators. A systematic search was conducted across six databases: Web of Science Core Collection, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Scopus, ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, and CNKI. A total of 30 longitudinal studies met the inclusion criteria, comprising 32 independent samples and 71 effect sizes, with a total sample of 37,952 children and adolescents. A multilevel random-effects model was used for analysis. The results showed that the zero-order correlation between peer victimization and subsequent loneliness was r = 0.26 (p < .001). However, after controlling for baseline loneliness, the longitudinal predictive effect was trivial (partial r = 0.07, p < .001), suggesting minimal practical significance. Moderation analyses revealed that this weak association became weaker over longer time intervals, in European samples, and with peer-nominated measures. These findings indicate that the long-term effect of peer victimization on loneliness may be negligible, warranting caution in the development of targeted intervention strategies.