Parental history and social context shape offspring survival in captive jaguars (Pantera onca)

Captive breeding plays an important role in the conservation of large carnivores. Yet, factors influencing offspring survival remain poorly quantified. Using long-term reproductive records from the Jaguar Conservation Fund, Brazil, we examined sources of variation in cub survival within a highly productive jaguar (Panthera onca) population. We analysed 34 litters (66 cubs) produced by 10 females and 11 males between 2014 and 2025. Data were evaluated using both litter-level binomial mixed-effects models and individual-level survival analyses. Overall cub survival was high (86.4%), but varied predictably with maternal parity and management context. Litters from multiparous females showed near-complete survival, whereas primiparous litters experienced significantly lower survival probabilities. Paternal presence at birth was associated with reduced cub survival and elevated early mortality risk. In contrast, a history of maternal hand-feeding was associated with improved survival. Proximity to humans showed no statistically supported effect after accounting for other variables. Survival analyses restricted to the first 90 days post-birth confirmed that these factors influenced early-life mortality risk rather than cumulative losses over time. Random effects for dam and sire identity explained little additional variation, indicating that observed differences in survival were largely attributable to identifiable life-history and management factors rather than persistent individual effects. Together, these results demonstrate that high reproductive success in captive jaguars is compatible with structured human intervention, and that early postnatal survival is shaped primarily by maternal experience and social context. By identifying specific, actionable risk factors, this study provides evidence-based guidance for refining captive management strategies for large felids.