Machine learning algorithms in jointly developing prediction models for subsequent school bullying victimization in...

Existing evidence indicates that children and adolescents experiencing bullying victimization (BV) exhibit mental health deterioration, and such effects can persist into adulthood. As current decision-making tools are scarce, we aim to develop a tool to predict subsequent BV risk among Chinese youth. Data were retrieved from a three-wave prospective study which incorporated into the Mental Health Survey for Children and Adolescents in Yunnan (MHSCAY). Six common machine learning (ML) algorithms were used. We internally validated the models using 500 times bootstrap approach to assess discrimination, calibration, and utility. A total of 5345 participants aged 10-17 years completed the survey. The internal validation showed the logistic regression (LR) model slightly outperformed other ML algorithms and exhibited more evenly distributed individual-level prediction uncertainty. It was therefore selected as the final model, achieving an AUROC of 0.800 (95% CI: 0.785, 0.815), AUPRC of 0.519 (95% CI: 0.483, 0.553), calibration intercept of -0.001 (95% CI: -0.076, 0.069), calibration slope of 0.990 (95% CI: 0.930, 1.059), and Brier score of 0.122 (95% CI: 0.117, 0.128). Furthermore, the calibration plot indicated excellent precision, and positive net benefits were observed across broad threshold ranges. Fairness analysis revealed no predictive bias in key subpopulations. This novel predictive tool utilizes seven baseline predictors that are readily accessible to generate accurate, individualized predictions of subsequent BV risk in children and adolescents. Upon further validation, the model may facilitate risk stratification, thereby guiding resource allocation and informing targeted interventions for potential BV crises among Chinese children and adolescents.