When political change seems impossible: Collective nostalgia, utopian thinking, and the desire to emigrate as...

In 2022, Viktor Orbán won a constitutional majority in Hungary for the fourth consecutive time. Even before the election, many had doubted that the Orbán regime could be removed through democratic means, but the united opposition's defeat almost completely shattered the remaining hope for political change. This study examines how individuals respond to such a context through the lens of Hirschman's Exit, Voice, Loyalty framework. Building on this model, three escapist pathways are distinguished: a past-oriented form of voice rooted in collective nostalgia, a present-oriented exit manifested in the desire to emigrate, and a future-oriented form of voice expressed through utopian thinking. These responses are expected to become particularly salient under conditions of low system justification and political efficacy. In Study 1 (N = 675), all three pathways were negatively associated with system justification, although the effect for collective nostalgia emerged only at the trend level when control variables were included. Political efficacy moderated only the relationship between system justification and the desire to emigrate. In Study 2 (N = 489), the causal effects of narrative framing were examined experimentally. Nostalgic and utopian framings increased willingness to engage in low-cost collective action, whereas emigration framing showed no mobilising effect. No moderating role of political efficacy was observed. Results suggest low political efficacy predicts a stronger desire to emigrate, while highlighting the possibility of emigration can dampen system-challenging collective action. Important theoretical and practical implications are also discussed.