Meta-analysis of growth and inactivation kinetics of Legionella

Quantitative risk assessments intended to inform evidence-based water management plans and public health targets for Legionella in engineered water systems are constrained by fragmented and heterogeneous growth and inactivation kinetics. We conducted a meta-analysis of 25 growth and 39 thermal- and chemical-inactivation studies, fitting microbial persistence models to harmonize parameters. Nonlinear models outperformed first-order formulations, indicating that lag phases and resistant or protected subpopulations are central to Legionella persistence. Random forest analysis identified environmental and methodological drivers of variability based on 226 growth rates and reduction times for thermal (209) and chemical (135) inactivation. Growth was primarily governed by temperature, nutrient availability, and compatible Legionella-host pairings; thermal inactivation by quantification method, temperature, and turbidity; and chemical inactivation by inoculum size, disinfectant type, concentration, and host-associations. Accordingly, temperature-dependent growth parameters and exposure metrics for heat, free-chlorine, and monochloramine, expressed as TT (Temperature×time) and CT (Concentration×time), were derived as condition-specific inputs for predictive models. Growth optima around 37-40 °C, together with lag-time estimates, indicate that hot-water temperature setbacks and energy-saving practices may favor Legionella proliferation under repeated or prolonged lukewarm exposure. Culture- and viability-based TT differences highlight the need to consider viable‑but-non-culturable persistence in monitoring programs. CT comparisons suggest monochloramine may be advantageous because of its lower apparent sensitivity to host-associated protection. Although limited by restricted experimental conditions, the findings show that predictive models should account for microbial ecology, water matrix effects, and quantification endpoints. Future kinetic studies should prioritize realistic multi-host systems, strain pre-adaptation, complementary viability measurements, and standardized protocols and reporting to ensure reproducibility and enable robust system-level predictive modeling.