Erosion-driven delayed warming and marine stress prior to the end-Permian mass extinction

The end-Permian mass extinction (EPME) presents an anomaly: intense global warming lags the onset of the carbon isotope excursion (CIE) by ~50,000 years, challenging the presumed link between carbon cycle perturbations and climate warming. Using biogeochemical modeling, Bayesian inversion, and multiple proxies, here we show that incorporating continental erosion as a forcing term into the hyperthermal models can resolve this decoupling. Enhanced erosion, likely resulting from the terrestrial die-off of vegetation, accelerates continental weathering, which buffers early carbon release and delays global warming. This process also increases riverine phosphorus export to the oceans, fostering gradual marine anoxia and preconditioning the oceans for the extinction event. With these findings, we present a coherent unifying scenario for the EPME environmental dynamics. Furthermore, our study refines the hyperthermal paradigm, offering implications for future climate scenarios.