Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 21, 2026
12:44
Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Climate-driven flooding widens economic inequalities across EU regions
Shane M Dunne1, Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis2, Olga Ivanova3
1Department of Multi-Actor Systems, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands. s.m.dunne@tudelft.nl.
Scientific Reports
|June 19, 2026
Summary
Climate change hazards like flooding and sea-level rise will increase regional economic inequality in Europe. Low-income areas face the largest GDP losses, up to 51%, exacerbating disparities by 2100.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Economics
- Climate Change Economics
- Regional Economics
Background:
- Climate change poses significant economic risks, with localized impacts potentially increasing inter-regional inequalities.
- Europe, experiencing rapid warming, faces asymmetric spillovers from local climate damages into interconnected markets.
- Existing research often lacks granular, regionalized analysis to quantify indirect economic effects of climate risks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the direct and indirect economic repercussions of river flooding and sea-level rise across European NUTS2 regions by 2100.
- To assess whether physical climate risks act as structural drivers of future regional inequality.
- To provide insights for policy interventions aimed at mitigating climate-induced socio-economic adversities.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an empirical dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model disaggregated to NUTS2 European regions.
- Incorporated complex economic feedbacks across granular regions and sectors.
- Modeled projections for two major climate-driven hazards: river flooding and sea-level rise.
Main Results:
- Climate-induced hazards create an economically divergent force across European regions.
- Significant heterogeneity in combined direct and indirect physical risks was found, with some regions facing GDP declines up to 51% by 2100.
- Low-income regions experience disproportionately higher losses, increasing both between and within-country regional inequality.
Conclusions:
- Physical climate risks, specifically river flooding and sea-level rise, are projected to significantly exacerbate regional economic inequalities in Europe.
- Disaggregated, economy-wide analysis is crucial for understanding the nuanced impacts of climate change on regional economies.
- Policy interventions are needed to address the growing socio-economic disparities driven by climate change impacts.
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