Assessing ecosystem services capacity and landscape sensitivity under rapid urbanization in a flood-prone lowland

This study assesses ecosystem services (ESs) capacity and landscape sensitivity to support the management of spatial and temporal changes in the flood-prone lowlands of Düzce Province, Türkiye, which is undergoing rapid urbanization. ESs, defined as the direct and indirect benefits that nature provides to people, are increasingly threatened by land use/land cover (LULC) changes, urban sprawl, and environmental degradation. Given the region's high exposure to natural hazards such as floods, landslides, and erosion, understanding the interaction between ES capacity and landscape sensitivity is crucial for disaster risk reduction and sustainable planning. The study employs a hierarchical framework across spatial, institutional, and temporal (SIT) scales: (i) LULC changes derived from CORINE land cover data (1990-2018) were analyzed to identify spatial patterns of ES capacity decline and emerging high-risk zones. (ii) At the institutional scale, an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and an ESs-LULC matrix were used to prioritize services through expert assessments from local agencies. (iii) At the temporal scale, 2050 population projections were used to model future demand for ESs and urban sprawl risks. (iv) These outputs were spatially integrated to generate sensitivity maps and inform adaptive planning strategies. The findings indicate that ESs capacity is declining in areas increasingly affected by urban encroachment, industrial development, and flood-related risks. This integrated approach highlights the importance of using spatially explicit, stakeholder-informed assessments to enhance local resilience and support climate-adaptive and hazard-responsive land-use planning.