Availability of essential medicines in conflict-affected african regions: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Access to essential medicines is a fundamental human right and a critical pillar of effective healthcare. In Africa, armed conflicts severely weaken health systems, disrupting the availability of essential medicine, leading to gaps in patients' treatment and, in turn, posing a serious risk to overall public health. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the impact of armed conflicts on the availability of essential medicines as a cornerstone of healthcare across African regions, and quantify the extent of this disruption over time and by country.

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, data were retrieved from published articles accessible in PubMed, Semantic Scholar, and grey literature covering the period from 1985 to 2025 and 2001 to 2024 for system impact and medicines availability studies, respectively. The literature search was conducted from January to May 2025. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis guidelines, studies were independently screened by two reviewers and included if they contained information on medicine availability or its relation to health systems in conflict zones and were published in English. The quality of studies was evaluated using the Joanna Briggs Institute criteria. Pooled estimates of medicine availability and their 95% CIs were obtained using a random-effects analysis. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I² statistic. The risk of bias and small study effects were assessed with funnel plots and Egger's test. Additionally, the leave-one-out sensitivity test and influence diagnostics test were considered to evaluate study-level impact.

The review included data from 1,581 health facilities and 989 essential medicines across eight conflict-affected African countries. The pooled availability of essential medicines calculated from the data obtained from 41 studies conducted in African countries shouldering frequent armed conflict was estimated at 55% (95% CI, 47-63), with substantial heterogeneity across studies (I² = 93%, p < 0.001). Country-level analysis showed the highest availability in the Central African Republic (79%; 95% CI, 49-95) and the lowest in Nigeria (40%; 95% CI, 1-78). A temporal decline in medicine availability was observed, from 76% (2001-2010) to 46% post-2020. No significant publication bias was detected (funnel plot asymmetry p = 0.9560; Egger's test p = 0.494). Additionally, the influence diagnostic test and the leave-one-out sensitivity analysis indicated that observed heterogeneity likely reflects methodological differences and the sample size across the studies rather than bias or outliers. The systematic review revealed that armed conflicts have profoundly compromised health system functionality through the destruction of healthcare infrastructure, closure of medical facilities, displacement of the health workforce, pervasive insecurity and psychological distress among healthcare providers, and disruptions in supply chains and transportation networks, all of which have adversely affected the accessibility of essential medicines.

On average, only 55% of essential medicines were available in conflict-affected regions of Africa, which was below the WHO benchmark of 80%. This finding underscores the severe threat that armed conflict poses to medicine availability and, consequently, to increased indirect morbidity and mortality. Additionally, the conflict undermines medicine availability through multiple, often interconnected mechanisms, indicating the need for a coordinated, multisectoral approach to ensure continuous access to essential medicines. Therefore, strengthening healthcare infrastructure in conflict settings is critical. Furthermore, the international community should enforce accountability mechanisms for violations affecting healthcare services, while donors and regional humanitarian assistance and emergency response mechanisms should increase investment and medicine supply in resilient medicine supply systems capable of maintaining availability during periods of armed conflict.

The study protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD420251154811), the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews, maintained by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR).