Temporal patterns of haemoglobin phenotypes among Nigerian university students based on ten years of surveillance...

Haemoglobinopathies remain among the most common monogenic disorders worldwide, with sickle cell disease (SCD) and various forms of thalassemia posing significant challenges to public health systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study presents a ten-year retrospective analysis of haemoglobin phenotype surveillance data, encompassing multiple regions and demographic strata. This retrospective work was conducted at Bowen University Hospital, Iwo, Osun State, southwestern Nigeria between January 2015 and December 2024. Data were extracted and analyzed using machine learning from 8890 medical records of undergraduate annual phenotype screening spanning ten years (2015-2024). HbAA was the most common genotype at 75.11% (n = 6,677). SCD genotypes (HbSS and HbSC) showed a non-significant downward trend over the ten-year period (slope = - 0.03 percentage points/year; R² = 0.07; p = 0.45), and their combined prevalence remained stable at approximately 1.2%. Carrier prevalence (HbAS and HbAC) also remained stable across the study period. SCD continues to represent an important public health concern, particularly in resource-limited settings, where it contributes to morbidity, mortality, and reduced educational participation. This ten-year dataset, drawn from a single university cohort, offers a useful vantage point from which to reflect on the direction of institutional haemoglobinopathy surveillance. Because the findings are derived from admitted university students, they should be interpreted as indicative of a relatively healthy, educated young adult population rather than of Nigeria's general population. The approach may nonetheless inform and support the design of broader institutional surveillance, policy engagement, and community-level health-education efforts.