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A prediction model and risk stratification tool for survival by chemotherapy in invasive micropapillary carcinoma of
Fang Yang1, Yiqi Yang1, Qiuping Xu1
1The Comprehensive Cancer Center of Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
Background:
Invasive micropapillary carcinoma (IMPC) of the breast is associated with a high propensity for lymphovascular invasion and lymph node metastasis. However, whether chemotherapy is associated with improved survival outcomes in these patients remains unclear.
Methods:
This retrospective study analyzed IMPC patients from the SEER database (2010-2018) (n=1,150) and an external validation cohort from Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital (n=199). Propensity score matching assessed chemotherapy's impact on overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) in the SEER cohort. A risk stratification model was developed and validated using the external cohort.
Results:
In the SEER cohort, chemotherapy was associated with significantly improved OS (HR = 0.517, 95% CI 0.293-0.910, P = 0.020) but not BCSS. A risk model incorporating marital status, tumor size, subtype, and radiotherapy history identified high- and low-risk groups. Chemotherapy was associated with significantly better OS only for high-risk patients (internal training cohort: HR = 0.577, 95% CI 0.349-0.952, P = 0.029; internal validation cohort: HR = 0.213, 95% CI 0.070-0.647, P = 0.003). External validation consistently confirmed poorer prognosis for high-risk patients (HR = 2.969, 95% CI 1.028-8.571, P = 0.035) and verified the model's ability to identify patients with differential OS associations with chemotherapy: chemotherapy was associated with better OS in high-risk patients (HR = 0.163, 95% CI 0.031-0.868, P = 0.016), but not in low-risk patients (HR = 0.793, 95% CI 0.153-4.103, P = 0.782).
Conclusions:
Chemotherapy was associated with improved prognosis particularly in high-risk patients with IMPC. However, chemotherapy decisions should be made cautiously for low-risk patients, taking into account a comprehensive assessment of clinical and pathological factors.
