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A Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network Framework for Multi-Horizon Stroke Mortality Prediction.

Aabila Tharzeen, Alireza Vafaei Sadr, Nazli Radfar

Medrxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences

|June 22, 2026

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Related Concept Videos

Hemorrhagic Stroke l: Introduction

Hemorrhagic Stroke l: Introduction

A hemorrhagic stroke is an acute neurological event that occurs when a weakened cerebral blood vessel ruptures, allowing blood to accumulate within or around the brain. The sudden release of blood forms a focal hematoma that increases intracranial pressure, displaces neural tissue, and can obstruct cerebrospinal fluid pathways. These effects may be compounded by intraventricular extension of the hemorrhage, cerebral edema, or compression of adjacent structures, all of which contribute to...

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Graph-based machine learning accurately predicts stroke mortality across multiple timeframes by analyzing electronic health records. This approach improves upon traditional models, offering better insights into patient outcomes.

Area of Science:

Medical Informatics
Machine Learning
Clinical Prediction Models

Background:

Traditional machine learning for stroke mortality prediction often overlooks the complex relationships within electronic health records (EHRs).
These models typically analyze each prediction timeframe independently, limiting their comprehensive understanding of patient outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and evaluate a novel graph-based machine learning model for predicting stroke mortality across multiple time horizons.
To assess the effectiveness of heterogeneous graph neural networks in capturing relational EHR data for improved mortality prediction.

Main Methods:

Developed Stroke Temporal Heterogeneous Graph (StrokeTHG), a graph neural network model utilizing EHR data.
Incorporated temporal encoding and encoded relationships between EHR entities (patients, diagnoses, comorbidities).

Related Experiment Videos

Compared StrokeTHG against traditional models like Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost.

Main Results:

StrokeTHG achieved superior Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUROC) scores (0.872, 0.878, 0.837) across 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year prediction horizons.
The model outperformed all tabular baselines, identifying more mortality cases at clinically relevant specificity levels.
Analysis highlighted the importance of phenotype-patient and admission-patient edges in the EHR graph for accurate prediction.

Conclusions:

Heterogeneous graph representations of EHR data significantly enhance multi-horizon stroke mortality prediction compared to tabular models.
StrokeTHG offers a promising methodological framework adaptable for various EHR-based clinical research studies.
The model demonstrates improved predictive performance, particularly at actionable sensitivity thresholds.