When uncertainty is not the problem: science, complexity, and the evaluation of research

Uncertainty has traditionally been regarded as a transient limitation of scientific knowledge, expected to be resolved through methodological refinement or the accumulation of evidence. However, when research is conducted at the frontiers of knowledge and addresses complex, non-linear biological systems, uncertainty ceases to be a methodological flaw and becomes a structural condition of scientific progress. Drawing on epistemological, historical, and clinical perspectives, this article revisits the productive role of uncertainty in knowledge generation and highlights its relevance for understanding complex medical phenomena. From this standpoint, illustrative examples from clinical practice and the history of biomedical research are discussed, showing that many significant advances emerged from contexts of conceptual exploration rather than strict predictability. Finally, the article examines the implications of this perspective for contemporary systems of research evaluation and funding, emphasizing the tensions that arise when criteria of predictability and methodological security are applied to inherently uncertain problems. Recognizing uncertainty as a legitimate component of the scientific process is essential to promote research practices that are more consistent and better aligned with the complexity of current medical challenges.