[Decomposition and Coupling Effect of Influencing Factors on Agricultural Net Carbon Sink in Guizhou Province]

Agriculture has the nature of serving as both a carbon source and carbon sink. Exploring the net carbon effect of agriculture in Guizhou Province and its coupling effects with economic development， as well as analyzing the historical changes and future trends of factors affecting net carbon amount， is of great value for promoting Guizhou Province's agriculture sector to achieve the "dual carbon" goals. In this study， we calculated the net carbon effect of agriculture in Guizhou Province from 2005 to 2022， explored the coupling state changes between the net carbon sink of agriculture and agricultural output value in Guizhou Province using the Tapio decoupling model， decomposed the driving factors of the net carbon sink of agriculture in Guizhou Province based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） model， and further analyzed the dynamic relationship between influencing factors and agricultural net carbon sink using the vector autoregressive （VAR） model to predict the agricultural net carbon sink. The results show that： ① During the study period， Guizhou Province's agriculture exhibited net carbon sink characteristics， with corn and rice being the main carbon sinks， while livestock and poultry farming were the main carbon emission sources. ② The coupling effect between Guizhou Province's agricultural net carbon sink and agricultural output value exhibited two states： economic/ecological dominant coupling and ecological weakening coupling. ③ The level of agricultural economy promoted the agricultural net carbon sink， while the intensity of agricultural net carbon sink， the scale of agricultural labor force， and the agricultural industrial structure all inhibited the agricultural net carbon sink， with decreasing effects in order. ④ From a dynamic perspective， after being impacted by four influencing factors， the agricultural net carbon sink exhibited repeated fluctuations of positive and negative effects over a certain period. From 2023 to 2030， Guizhou Province's agricultural net carbon sink will basically remain around 400×10⁴ t， showing a characteristic of "low-level stabilization." Based on this， it is proposed that the development of low-carbon agriculture in Guizhou Province should be facilitated by realizing the economic value transformation of agricultural carbon sinks， reasonably adjusting the agricultural economic development model， and optimizing labor resources.