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[Landscape Ecological Risk Identification and Driving Factors Analysis: A Comparative Study of Three Major City
Yi-Heng Ye1, Yu Chen1, Xiao-Mei Deng1
1Department of Land Resource Management, School of Public Administration, South-Central Minzu University, Wuhan 430074, China.
Abstract:
Under globalization and rapid urbanization, evolving urban landscape patterns generate ecologically complex, spatially heterogeneous risks, threatening ecosystem services and human well-being. Using Landscape Fragility and Disturbance Indices within a resilience theory framework, this study establishes an Urban Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment System. A "Social-Economic-Natural" framework selected representative factors to comparatively analyze spatiotemporal evolution and drivers of ecological risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and Pearl River Delta (PRD) urban agglomerations from 2013 to 2023. The results show that: ① During the study period, over 65% of the three major urban agglomerations showed medium-high risk; temporally, low-medium risk areas increased while high-risk decreased, with spatially distinct concentrations: mountainous zones in BTH (>33%), central/southeast coast in YRD (>20%), and widespread distribution in PRD (>32%). ② From 2013 to 2023, regional dominant drivers differed: primarily natural factors in BTH, economic drivers in the YRD, and dual natural-economic drivers in the PRD. ③ From 2013 to 2023, locally heterogeneous drivers were as follows: BTH showed persistent socioeconomic suppression versus expansion-induced intensification with mountain-plain natural contrasts; YRD exhibited natural gradients and east-west socioeconomic divergence; and PRD demonstrated market-driven risk suppression. ④ Urban landscape ecological risk developed through a compound logic chain: Natural endowments established risk foundations, economic activities drove risk generation, and social systems modulated risk evolution, with spatial heterogeneity originating from nonlinear socio-economic-natural interactions. This study provides theoretical foundations and actionable policy insights for identifying ecological risks in city clusters, establishing unified governance frameworks for risk mitigation, and tailoring differentiated management strategies to distinct megaregional landscape ecological risk profiles.
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