[Analysis and Prediction of Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Storage in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Based on the...

Against the backdrop of global warming and frequent extreme weather， reducing carbon emissions has become an international focus. As a crucial ecological barrier and energy base in Northwest China， the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region urgently needs clarification regarding the spatiotemporal trends of its carbon storage and the driving factors behind its spatial distribution differences under various future development scenarios. To address this， the PLUS model was employed to simulate and predict land use patterns in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region for 2040 under four scenarios： natural development， cultivated land protection， ecological protection， and urban development. Subsequently， the InVEST model was used to quantitatively assess carbon storage during historical periods and under these future scenarios. Furthermore， the optimal geographical detector model was applied to analyze the dominant factors influencing the spatial distribution of carbon storage in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and their interactive effects. The results indicate： ① Between 1990 and 2020， grassland area in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region significantly decreased （a total reduction of 2 751.56 km²， with 2 372.55 km² occurring between 1990 and 2000）， while construction land continuously expanded （by 117.61， 683.66， and 641.54 km² from 1990 to 2000， 2000 to 2010， and 2010 to 2020， respectively）. ② Carbon storage slightly increased from 1990 to 2000 （an increase of 0.778×10⁶ t） and then continuously decreased thereafter. ③ By 2040， carbon storage under all four development scenarios was projected to be lower than the 2020 level. Among these， the ecological protection scenario showed the smallest reduction in carbon storage （a decrease of 4.057×10⁶ t）， while the urban development scenario exhibited the largest reduction. ④ Annual precipitation （with the strongest single-factor explanatory power）， DEM （elevation）， and annual average temperature were the main natural factors affecting the spatial distribution of carbon storage. All two-factor interactions demonstrated an enhancing effect， with the interaction between normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） and DEM having the strongest explanatory power. This study suggests that implementing an ecological protection pathway in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in the future can most effectively mitigate carbon storage loss. The spatial differentiation of carbon storage was primarily dominated by annual precipitation， and the interaction between DEM and NDVI was the strongest.