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Research on dynamic cost prediction method for power technology upgrading projects based on improved transformer
Qi Shi1, Yue Le2, Chunjie Gu3
1Production Technology Department, State Grid East China Branch, Shanghai, 200120, China. shiqisgcc@163.com.
Scientific Reports
|June 23, 2026
Summary
This study introduces an advanced Transformer model for accurate power grid technical renovation (PGTR) cost prediction. The new framework significantly improves prediction accuracy over existing methods, aiding project management.
Area of Science:
- Electrical Engineering
- Data Science
- Artificial Intelligence
Background:
- Accurate cost prediction is vital for managing power grid technical renovation (PGTR) projects.
- Traditional methods fail to capture complex dynamics in renovation cost data.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop an improved Transformer-based framework for accurate PGTR cost prediction.
- To address the nonlinear, multi-scale, and time-varying nature of renovation cost data.
Main Methods:
- Proposed an MS-DW-Transformer framework combining multi-scale convolutional encoding, dynamic weight allocation, and auxiliary loss.
- Tested the framework on 1,362 completed PGTR projects.
- Compared performance against classical and recent time-series Transformer models.
Main Results:
- Achieved a mean MAPE of 6.83% and R² of 0.937 on the test set.
- Demonstrated statistically significant improvements over baseline models.
- Provided detailed analyses of model interpretability and sensitivity.
Conclusions:
- The MS-DW-Transformer framework offers superior performance for PGTR cost prediction.
- The model's design effectively captures complex data dynamics.
- Further research is needed to assess generalizability beyond the studied dataset.
Related Concept Videos
01:21Energy Losses in Transformers
In an ideal transformer, it is assumed that there are no energy losses, and, hence, all the power at the primary winding is transferred to the secondary winding. However, in reality, the transformers always have some energy losses, and, hence, the output power obtained at the secondary winding is less than the input power at the primary winding due to energy losses.
There are four main reasons for energy losses in transformers.
The first cause can be the high resistance of the copper windings...
There are four main reasons for energy losses in transformers.
The first cause can be the high resistance of the copper windings...
01:27Transformers in Distribution System
Transformers in distribution systems can be broadly categorized into distribution substation transformers and other distribution transformers. They are crucial for stepping down high transmission voltages to levels suitable for distribution and end-user applications.
Distribution substation transformers come in various ratings and typically use mineral oil for insulation and cooling. To prevent moisture and air from entering the oil, some transformers use an inert gas like nitrogen to fill the...
Distribution substation transformers come in various ratings and typically use mineral oil for insulation and cooling. To prevent moisture and air from entering the oil, some transformers use an inert gas like nitrogen to fill the...
01:18Reducing Line Loss
In a three-phase circuit, line loss is an indicator of energy dissipated as heat due to the resistance of transmission lines. To address this, incorporating transformers into the system—a step-up transformer at the source and a step-down transformer at the load—is a strategic solution. Two three-phase transformers are introduced to improve this.
With a step-up transformer at the source, the voltage is increased, thereby reducing the current in the transmission lines since power loss in...
With a step-up transformer at the source, the voltage is increased, thereby reducing the current in the transmission lines since power loss in...
01:25Transformers with Off-Nominal Turns Ratios
In scenarios involving parallel transformers with disparate ratings, developing per-unit models requires accommodating off-nominal turns ratios. This situation arises when the selected base voltages are not proportional to the transformer’s voltage ratings. Consider a transformer where the rated voltages are related by the term a. If the chosen voltage bases satisfy a relationship involving term b, term c is defined as the ratio of these bases. This ratio is then substituted into the rated...
01:19Three-Winding Transformers
Three identical single-phase transformers can be configured to form a three-phase transformer connection, which involves high-voltage and low-voltage windings. The high-voltage windings are denoted by capital letters A-B-C, while the low-voltage windings are labeled with lowercase letters a-b-c, representing their respective phases. This notation helps distinguish between the high and low voltage sides of the transformer.
In the per-unit equivalent circuit of a grounded Y-Y three-phase...
In the per-unit equivalent circuit of a grounded Y-Y three-phase...
01:28Equivalent Circuits for Practical Transformers
The practical equivalent circuits of single-phase two-winding transformers exhibit significant deviations from their idealized versions due to the inherent properties of winding resistance and finite core permeability. These properties result in real and reactive power losses, affecting the transformer's performance. Understanding these deviations is crucial for designing more efficient transformers.
In a practical transformer, each winding exhibits resistance and leakage reactance. The winding...
In a practical transformer, each winding exhibits resistance and leakage reactance. The winding...