Threat-Induced Conservatism in a Liberal Electorate: Issue-Based Shifts without Ideological Transformation

Psychology theories of threat management posit that perceived threats can drive individuals toward security-focused, often conservative, policies. Yet, evidence for a threat-induced conservative shift has been inconsistent across studies, raising the possibility that such effects are contingent on the political context. The present studies were conducted in a novel context by recruiting voters in a liberal-leaning city prior to voting on a local ballot measure to revise the $950 threshold used to classify theft as a misdemeanor or a felony. In two experiments (206 adults in Study 1; 98 college students in Study 2), participants viewed either a video of retail crimes or local tourist attractions, and then adjusted the dollar threshold for the local law and reported their current political leaning. The experimental group in both studies significantly reduced the threshold from pre- to posttest without changing their political leaning. While conservative shift found partial support, another equally theoretically grounded hypothesis regarding polarization as a threat response was not supported. Discussion is offered on Democrats' missed opportunities to reassure voters during times of crisis.