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Updated: Jun 26, 2026
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A 3D Human Lung Tissue Model for Functional Studies on Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection
Published on: October 5, 2015
A data-driven tuberculosis model with behavioral changes and saturated treatment: Optimal control and
Pooja Khoda1, Tapan Sarkar2, Om Prakash Meena3
1Department of Mathematics, Shaheed Bhagat Singh College, University of Delhi, New Delhi 110017, India.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|June 25, 2026
Summary
This study developed a tuberculosis transmission model for India, finding that preventive measures alone are most effective at baseline. With improved intervention efficacy, combining preventive measures and active case finding is the most cost-effective strategy to reduce TB transmission.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant global health challenge, necessitating effective control strategies.
- India faces a substantial burden of TB, requiring data-driven approaches to meet WHO End TB strategy goals.
- Existing TB models often lack the granularity to assess complex intervention dynamics and cost-effectiveness.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and analyze a data-driven mathematical model for tuberculosis transmission in India.
- To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of various intervention strategies for TB control.
- To identify optimal intervention combinations to accelerate progress towards the WHO End TB strategy milestones.
Main Methods:
- A susceptible-exposed-infectious-treatment (SEIT) model with Holling type-II incidence and Verhulst-type treatment was formulated.
- Model parameters were estimated using Indian TB incidence data from 2000-2020.
- Optimal control theory, including Pontryagin's maximum principle, was applied to assess intervention strategies (preventive measures, preventive treatment, active case finding).
Main Results:
- The basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated at 1.4507, indicating endemic transmission.
- Under baseline intervention efficacy, strategy E (preventive measures only) was most effective in reducing transmission.
- With enhanced intervention efficacy, strategy C (preventive measures + active case finding) was the most cost-effective, showing the lowest ACER and ICER.
Conclusions:
- The study provides evidence-based, cost-effective strategies for TB control in India.
- Optimizing intervention combinations is crucial for achieving significant reductions in TB incidence and mortality.
- Findings can inform policy decisions to accelerate progress towards eliminating TB in India by 2035.
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