Prediction of the Global Potential Distribution Area of Phytopythium litorale Based on the Maxent Model

This study aims to predict the global distribution and future potential distribution trends of Phytopythium litorale to support its prevention and control. The current suitable habitat area is estimated at 3702.85 × 10⁴ km², mainly in North America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. Using 150 global occurrence records and 36 environmental variables, we applied the MaxEnt model (FC = LQHPT, RM = 4) to identify dominant environmental factors and project suitable habitats and centroid shifts under three future climate scenarios. The model performed well (AUC > 0.95). The main influencing factors were Mean Temperature of the Coldest Quarter, Isothermality, and Precipitation of the Coldest Quarter. Under future scenarios, the total suitable area is projected to increase, while some currently suitable regions will shrink and shift toward higher latitudes. The habitat centroid is predicted to migrate northeastward from Tamanrasset Province, Algeria, with a maximum displacement of 960 km (SSP3-7.0, 2081-2100). By predicting these distributional shifts, this study enhances our understanding of P. litorale biogeography and provides a scientific basis for managing this pathogen under climate change.