Diabetes Mortality in the Post-Pandemic Era: What Recent Global Burden of Disease Data Reveals About COVID-19's...

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted diabetes care globally and created a complex bidirectional health crisis. Recent forecasting efforts using pre-pandemic data projected substantial increases in diabetes mortality through 2030, raising concerns about achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.4. However, these projections did not account for pandemic-related disruptions to health systems and chronic disease management. The newly released Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data, covering the pandemic period through 2023, now provide a comprehensive empirical reference for assessing COVID-19's observed impact on diabetes trends. This perspective adopts a forecast reconciliation and interpretation approach by examining counterfactual pre-pandemic diabetes mortality projections alongside GBD 2023 data, thereby shedding light on how pandemic-era mortality diverged from pre-pandemic trajectories. Critically, we note that insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM, Type 1) and non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM, Type 2) have distinct etiologies and pandemic vulnerabilities, a distinction this article addresses. The evidence is striking: by 2023, global diabetes deaths had already exceeded 2.0 million per year, surpassing the 2030 upper forecast bound of 1.91 million, seven years ahead of the forecast horizon. NIDDM was the primary driver, with deaths crossing 1.9 million per year in 2023. These findings underscore the urgent need to strengthen diabetes prevention and management strategies as the world recovers from the pandemic-era disruptions in health systems and chronic disease care.