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Hierarchical Second-Order Monte Carlo Simulation for Uncertainty Quantification in Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk

Marija Živković1, Ivan Lazović1, Uzahir Ramadani1

  • 1Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, University of Belgrade, Mike Petrovica Alasa 12-14, 11351 Belgrade, Serbia.

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PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a probabilistic framework to assess cancer risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban air, particularly for schoolchildren. Outdoor heating during winter significantly increases exposure and cancer risk.

Keywords:
ILCRPAHshierarchical Monte Carloprobabilistic risk assessment

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Health Sciences
  • Risk Assessment
  • Computational Toxicology

Background:

  • Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are significant carcinogenic air pollutants in urban environments.
  • Inhalation exposure to PAHs poses health risks, especially for children aged 6-14 in school settings.
  • Existing deterministic models struggle to accurately quantify variability and uncertainty in exposure parameters for cancer risk assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a multi-layered probabilistic framework for assessing incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) from PAH exposure.
  • To quantify variability and epistemic uncertainty in exposure parameters using advanced Monte Carlo simulations.
  • To identify dominant exposure pathways and seasonal variations of PAHs in urban school environments.

Main Methods:

  • A hierarchical (second-order) two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation framework was developed.
  • The framework progressed from deterministic calculations to 1D MC and 2D MC simulations.
  • Latin hypercube sampling was used for inner-loop variable sampling and outer-loop hyper-parameter sampling.

Main Results:

  • Mean total ILCR values were 1.42 × 10-6 for children and 1.18 × 10-6 for adults.
  • The hierarchical 2D MC provided 95% confidence intervals for the 95th percentiles of ILCR.
  • Outdoor heating was identified as the primary exposure pathway contributing to elevated PAH concentrations.

Conclusions:

  • The developed probabilistic framework offers a more comprehensive uncertainty quantification for complex environmental exposure scenarios.
  • The findings highlight the significant contribution of outdoor heating to PAH exposure and associated cancer risk in school environments.
  • Despite the data's age, the study's findings on seasonal and microenvironmental PAH variability remain relevant for urban school settings.