Risk Factor Levels and the Burden of Skin Melanoma in Poland with Predictions Regarding the 2020-2030 Perspective

Background/Objectives: Melanoma is a major and growing public health concern in Poland, with a five-year survival around 60-70%. While UV radiation and genetic susceptibility are well-known risk factors, lifestyle and environmental exposures may also contribute. This study examined how selected risk factors relate to one-year melanoma prevalence across Poland's 16 voivodeships and assessed whether these factors can support short-term prediction. Methods: Annual melanoma prevalence for 2011-2021 was obtained from the Polish National Cancer Registry, and voivodeship-level estimates of metabolic risk factors, physical inactivity, alcohol consumption, smoking, high BMI, air pollution, water pollution and limited data on UV exposure were used to build a general estimating equations model. Model predictions for 2020-2021 were compared with observed data, and forecasts were generated through 2030. Results: Melanoma cases increased in every voivodeship between 2011 and 2021. Metabolic risk factors, high BMI, low physical activity and smoking were associated with higher melanoma prevalence. When other factors were considered, air pollution showed an inverse association, suggesting complex relationships that warrant further analysis. Forecasts indicated increasing prevalence in all of 16 voivodeships through 2030, although three regions showed large prediction errors for 2020-2021. A key limitation was the lack of sufficient UV exposure data. Conclusions: The findings support further evaluation of public health actions targeting the reduction of unhealthy lifestyle regarding diet, low physical activity, and smoking to help slow the projected rise in melanoma.