Trends in the China pathologist workforce From 2010 to 2022

Pathology faces a global personnel shortage and increasing workload due to rising cancer cases and diagnostic complexity, yet data in China are lacking. This study examines trends in China's pathology workforce from 2010 to 2022.

Data during 2010-2022 were collected from the China Health Statistical Yearbook, including the proportion of pathologists among physicians, oncology clinic outpatients, and discharged tumor patients. Data on new cancer cases and incidence rates from 2010 to 2018 were obtained from the China Cancer Registry Annual Report. We calculated ratio metrics (workload per pathologist) and growth rates, and performed descriptive linear regression to assess workforce demand balance.

From 2010 to 2022, the proportion of pathologists among physicians remained stable in China, while the estimated absolute number increased. Concurrently, the estimated national new cancer cases rose. Due to the increase in pathologist density (per million population), the estimated average cancer case load per pathologist decreased from 331.86 in 2010 to 215.29 in 2018. However, from 2010 to 2022, oncology clinic outpatients and inpatient tumor patients per pathologist increased by 131.42% and 46.98%, respectively. Growth rate analyses showed that oncology clinic outpatients and inpatient tumor patients increased by 325.28% and 170.10%, respectively, whereas the pathologist workforce increased by 83.77%. Descriptive linear regressions indicated positive correlations between pathologist numbers and patient volumes (all P < 0.001).

Although the pathologist workforce has grown in China, its growth has not kept pace with the rising diagnostic demand. The correlation between tumor patient volume and pathologist numbers highlights the need for workforce planning and efficiency-enhancing technologies.