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Risk factors for prolonged respiratory support in late preterm infants: a LASSO-Cox regression analysis
Yu Huang1, Xiao-Shuang Bao1, Na Sun1
1First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, China.
Insights
This study identified factors influencing respiratory support duration in late preterm infants. Multiple pregnancies and high superoxide dismutase (SOD) indicate longer support needs, while nasal continuous positive airway pressure (NCPAP) use shortens it.
Area of Science:
- Neonatal Medicine
- Respiratory Physiology
- Predictive Modeling in Pediatrics
Background:
- Late preterm infants (34 0/7–36 6/7 weeks) often require respiratory support.
- Predicting the duration of respiratory support is crucial for optimizing care and resource allocation.
- Interpretable models are needed to guide clinical decision-making for weaning infants from respiratory support.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify determinants of respiratory support duration in late preterm infants.
- To develop and validate an interpretable prediction model for weaning infants from respiratory support.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort study of 365 late preterm infants.
- LASSO-Cox regression and multivariable Cox modeling were used to select predictors for respiratory support duration.
- Model performance was assessed using C-index, time-dependent AUC, calibration curves, and SHAP analysis for interpretability.
Main Results:
- Risk factors for prolonged respiratory support included multiple pregnancies (HR=1.289) and elevated superoxide dismutase (SOD) (HR=1.014).
- Protective factors shortening support duration were nasal continuous positive airway pressure (NCPAP) (HR=0.703) and higher lymphocyte percentage (LYM_PC) (HR=0.987).
- The developed LASSO-Cox nomogram showed moderate-to-good discrimination (C-index=0.677) and acceptable calibration.
Conclusions:
- Multiple pregnancies and elevated SOD are indicators for prolonged respiratory support needs.
- Early initiation of NCPAP is associated with shorter respiratory support duration.
- The interpretable nomogram, enhanced by SHAP values, can aid in individualized weaning assessments for late preterm infants.
Objective:
To investigate determinants of respiratory support duration and construct an interpretable weaning prediction model for late preterm infants.
Methods:
A retrospective cohort study enrolled 365 late preterm infants (gestational age 34 + 0-36 + 6 weeks). Respiratory support duration (days) was the survival outcome, with successful weaning as the event. After Pearson correlation screening (|r| > 0.75 excluded), LASSO-Cox regression (10-fold cross-validation) selected predictors, followed by multivariable Cox modeling. Discrimination was assessed by C-index and time-dependent AUC at days 3, 5, and 8, with optimism-corrected bootstrap validation. Calibration was evaluated using calibration curves, Brier scores, and decision curve analysis. SHAP analysis quantified feature contributions on the log-hazard scale. Sensitivity analyses verified robustness.
Results:
Multiple pregnancy (HR = 1.289, 95% CI: 1.038-1.601, P = 0.022), superoxide dismutase (SOD) (HR = 1.014, 95% CI: 1.009-1.019, P < 0.001), and albumin-to-globulin ratio (A/G) (HR = 1.130, 95% CI: 1.001-1.275, P = 0.049) were risk factors. Nasal continuous positive airway pressure (NCPAP) (HR = 0.703, 95% CI: 0.564-0.878, P = 0.002), lymphocyte percentage (LYM_PC) (HR = 0.987, 95% CI: 0.978-0.997, P = 0.008), and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (HR = 0.991, 95% CI: 0.984-0.998, P = 0.013, per 10-unit increase) were protective factors. Pulmonary surfactant showed no association (P = 0.652). The model achieved a C-index of 0.677 (optimism-corrected 0.661) and td-AUC of 0.732, 0.769, and 0.782 at days 3, 5, and 8. Calibration was acceptable, DCA showed net benefit at day 5, and SHAP identified SOD, NCPAP, and LYM_PC as primary drivers.
Conclusion:
The LASSO-Cox nomogram demonstrated moderate-to-good discrimination. Multiple pregnancy and elevated SOD are warning signs for prolonged oxygen dependency, while early NCPAP can shorten respiratory support. Nomogram visualization with SHAP interpretability provides a transparent basis for individualized weaning assessment.
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