A Cost-Sensitive Behavioral Modeling Analysis of the Early Identification and Control of Infectious Diseases

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Public Health Policy

Background:

• Individual decisions on vaccination and testing impact disease spread.
• Public health interventions must account for behavioral feedback and perceived risk.
• Optimizing early outbreak control requires understanding the interplay of multiple interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and analyze a coupled epidemic-behavior model.
• To assess the combined impact of vaccination, testing, and treatment on early outbreak control.
• To investigate the role of individual choices and policy incentives in epidemic management.

Main Methods:

• A mathematical model integrating epidemic transmission with individual behavior.
• Analysis of epidemiological parameters including vaccine efficacy and testing false negatives.
• Simulations using time series and parameter sweeps to explore outbreak dynamics.

Main Results:

• Lowering vaccination and testing costs expands the disease-free equilibrium.
• Testing false negatives significantly reduce intervention efficacy by delaying diagnosis.
• Treatment is most beneficial when integrated with prompt testing and diagnosis.

Conclusions:

• Effective epidemic preparedness requires synchronized incentives for vaccination and testing.
• Reducing false negatives through accurate or repeated testing is vital.
• Accessible treatment aligned with rapid case identification optimizes resource allocation and response strategies.