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Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Multiple Primary Lung Cancer: Nomogram Development and Validation Study
Wenzhi Luo1, Kengliang Rao1, Hongjia Chen1
1Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, 613 Huangpu Avenue West, Tianhe District, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China, 86 02038688888.
JMIR Cancer
|June 26, 2026
Summary
This study developed a nomogram to predict survival for patients with multiple primary lung cancer (MPLC). The tool improves prognostic assessment and personalized treatment planning for MPLC patients.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Medical Informatics
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Increasing detection rates of multiple primary lung cancer (MPLC) due to advanced medical technology and early screening.
- Limited understanding of prognostic determinants and clinical characteristics in MPLC patients.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in MPLC patients.
- To enhance prognostic assessment and guide personalized treatment strategies for MPLC.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from 4177 MPLC patients (2007-2015) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database.
- Developed a nomogram based on 11 independent risk factors identified via backward stepwise Cox regression.
- Validated the nomogram using training (n=2923) and validation (n=1254) cohorts, adhering to TRIPOD guidelines.
Main Results:
- The nomogram demonstrated superior discriminative ability for predicting 3-, 5-, and 8-year OS compared to the AJCC staging system.
- Achieved higher area under the ROC curve values in both training and validation cohorts.
- Calibration curves and decision curve analysis confirmed the nomogram's clinical utility.
Conclusions:
- Established a validated nomogram for MPLC prognosis.
- The nomogram integrates clinical and socioeconomic variables for optimized patient management.
- Facilitates personalized treatment planning for patients diagnosed with multiple primary lung cancer.
Keywords:
SEER databaseSurveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results databasemultiple primary lung cancernomogramoverall survivalsurvival predictionMore Related Videos
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