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Gradient-boosting threshold identification for developmental toxicity: A BPAF case-study framework for early-stage

Chinedu Christian Iheanacho1, Dong Zhang2, Yao-Yang Xu2

  • 1State Key Laboratory of Regional and Urban Ecology, Ningbo Observation and Research Station, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen, 361021, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.

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|June 27, 2026
PubMed
Summary

This study introduces a new framework using machine learning and spatial analysis to assess environmental risks of Bisphenol AF (BPAF), a BPA substitute. It flags potential risks in China and Europe, urging focused monitoring on industrial areas and under-reported regions.

Keywords:
Bisphenol AFChemical substitutionEmerging contaminantsPredictive toxicologyRisk assessmentSpatial mapping

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Toxicology
  • Risk Assessment

Background:

  • Polymers rely on chemical additives, posing environmental and health risks.
  • Bisphenol AF (BPAF), a Bisphenol A (BPA) substitute, is a growing contaminant of concern due to its endocrine-disrupting properties and developmental toxicity.
  • Current risk assessments lack ecological relevance and early-stage accuracy.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and demonstrate an integrated, multi-domain assessment framework for early-stage risk evaluation of chemical contaminants.
  • To apply this framework using Bisphenol AF (BPAF) as a case study.
  • To derive a screening-level reference dose (RfD) and evaluate environmental exposure patterns for BPAF.

Main Methods:

  • Combined machine learning-derived toxicological benchmarks with spatial analytics.
  • Developed an integrated, multi-domain assessment framework.
  • Derived a screening-level reference dose (RfD) and evaluated BPAF exposure patterns.

Main Results:

  • Identified an imbalance in global BPAF monitoring data, with most data from Asia and Europe.
  • Preliminary risk flags were identified in sediment and water samples from China and parts of Europe.
  • Industrial and anthropogenic activities were identified as primary sources of BPAF contamination.

Conclusions:

  • The developed framework effectively supports early-stage risk prioritization and monitoring of BPAF.
  • Strengthened chemical oversight is needed, prioritizing under-reported regions and industrial watersheds.
  • Predictive toxicology and spatial analysis are valuable tools for environmental risk assessment.