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Science capital is related to probabilistic reasoning
Hanna Julku1, Milla Pihlajamäki2,3, Caitlin Dawson2
1Department of Education, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland. hanna.julku@helsinki.fi.
Scientific Reports
|June 27, 2026
Summary
Engaging in science activities boosts probabilistic reasoning and understanding of randomness. Early science encouragement, however, may decrease the use of the equiprobability heuristic in adults.
Area of Science:
- Science communication
- Cognitive science
- Educational psychology
Background:
- Navigating the information age requires recognizing trustworthy scientific data.
- Numeracy skills, including probabilistic reasoning, are essential for informed decision-making.
- Understanding probability and randomness is key to interpreting numerical scientific information.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between dimensions of science capital and probabilistic reasoning.
- To examine how engagement in science activities, self-efficacy, early encouragement, and science attitudes relate to understanding randomness, representativeness, and equiprobability heuristics.
Main Methods:
- Participants' probabilistic reasoning was assessed using a randomness task.
- The representativeness and equiprobability heuristics were measured through specific tasks.
- Statistical analyses controlled for age, gender, and education level.
Main Results:
- Greater engagement in science-related activities correlated with reduced use of the representativeness heuristic.
- Increased science engagement was linked to higher accuracy in a randomness task.
- Science-related activities positively influenced the equiprobability heuristic, while early science encouragement negatively impacted it.
Conclusions:
- Adults' accessible and encouraging science environments may enhance probabilistic reasoning skills.
- Science capital dimensions, particularly engagement, play a role in cognitive skills related to scientific information processing.
- Further research can explore interventions to improve probabilistic reasoning through science engagement.
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