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Updated: Jun 29, 2026

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Risk Group Stratification for True Early Recurrence After Ablation for Hepatomas.

Yi-Hao Yen1, Kwong-Ming Kee1, Chao-Hung Hung1

  • 1Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, cgu.edu.tw.

Canadian Journal of Gastroenterology & Hepatology
|June 28, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

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A new nomogram predicts early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after radiofrequency ablation (RFA). This tool aids in identifying patients at high risk for non-local recurrence, improving survival predictions for this lethal cancer.

Area of Science:

  • Hepatocellular Carcinoma Research
  • Oncology
  • Medical Imaging and Intervention

Background:

  • Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a deadly cancer.
  • Early recurrence post-treatment significantly impacts patient survival.
  • Identifying patients at risk for early recurrence is crucial for improving outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a predictive tool for early, non-local recurrence of HCC after radiofrequency ablation (RFA).
  • To identify independent factors associated with early recurrence in early-stage HCC patients treated with RFA.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of 625 early-stage HCC patients (BCLC Stage 0/A, Child-Pugh A) treated with RFA.
  • Patients categorized into early recurrence/death group (Group 1) and local recurrence/alive group (Group 2).
Keywords:
early recurrencehepatocellular carcinomaoverall survivalradiofrequency ablation

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  • Multivariate analysis to identify predictors of early recurrence; nomogram development.

    • Main Results:

    • Key predictors for early recurrence included MELD score >9, anti-HCV positivity, cirrhosis, antiviral therapy, AFP ≥20 ng/mL, multiple tumors, and larger tumor size.
    • A nomogram predicting early recurrence achieved a concordance index of 68.3%.
    • 10-year overall survival was 28% for the early recurrence group versus 64% for the other group.

    Conclusions:

    • A validated nomogram can predict true early (non-local) recurrence of HCC following RFA.
    • This predictive tool can aid clinicians in risk stratification and management decisions for HCC patients.
    • Improved prediction of recurrence may lead to better patient outcomes and survival rates.