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Risk Group Stratification for True Early Recurrence After Ablation for Hepatomas
Yi-Hao Yen1, Kwong-Ming Kee1, Chao-Hung Hung1
1Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, cgu.edu.tw.
Canadian Journal of Gastroenterology & Hepatology
|June 28, 2026
Summary
A new nomogram predicts early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after radiofrequency ablation (RFA). This tool aids in identifying patients at high risk for non-local recurrence, improving survival predictions for this lethal cancer.
Area of Science:
- Hepatocellular Carcinoma Research
- Oncology
- Medical Imaging and Intervention
Background:
- Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a deadly cancer.
- Early recurrence post-treatment significantly impacts patient survival.
- Identifying patients at risk for early recurrence is crucial for improving outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a predictive tool for early, non-local recurrence of HCC after radiofrequency ablation (RFA).
- To identify independent factors associated with early recurrence in early-stage HCC patients treated with RFA.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 625 early-stage HCC patients (BCLC Stage 0/A, Child-Pugh A) treated with RFA.
- Patients categorized into early recurrence/death group (Group 1) and local recurrence/alive group (Group 2).
- Multivariate analysis to identify predictors of early recurrence; nomogram development.
Main Results:
- Key predictors for early recurrence included MELD score >9, anti-HCV positivity, cirrhosis, antiviral therapy, AFP ≥20 ng/mL, multiple tumors, and larger tumor size.
- A nomogram predicting early recurrence achieved a concordance index of 68.3%.
- 10-year overall survival was 28% for the early recurrence group versus 64% for the other group.
Conclusions:
- A validated nomogram can predict true early (non-local) recurrence of HCC following RFA.
- This predictive tool can aid clinicians in risk stratification and management decisions for HCC patients.
- Improved prediction of recurrence may lead to better patient outcomes and survival rates.
