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Peak greening at moderate shrinking intensity across Chinese counties
Ran Chen1, Wenxiao Jia1, Kai Wang1
1College of Landscape Architecture & Arts, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, China.
Journal of Environmental Management
|June 28, 2026
Summary
Urban shrinkage in China surprisingly amplified vegetation greening, with moderate shrinkage showing the best ecological benefits. Tailored strategies are crucial for different shrinkage levels to optimize urban and ecological development.
Area of Science:
- Ecological economics
- Urban planning
- Environmental science
Background:
- Urban shrinkage is a growing phenomenon in contemporary development, yet its fine-scale ecological impacts, especially on vegetation, are not well understood.
- Understanding the relationship between urban dynamics and ecological health is vital for sustainable development strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the ecological impact of urban shrinkage on vegetation dynamics in China.
- To analyze the mechanisms influencing vegetation growth in shrinking and non-shrinking counties.
- To propose context-differentiated ecological strategies based on shrinkage intensity.
Main Methods:
- Nighttime-light data (2001-2020) to identify shrinking and non-shrinking counties in China.
- Net Primary Productivity (NPP) trends analyzed, validated by NDVI, EVI, and LAI.
- XGBoost modeling and SHAP interpretation to explore influencing factors.
Main Results:
- 39.8% of Chinese counties experienced shrinkage, most pronounced in Northeast China.
- Shrinking counties exhibited an 11.7% higher median NPP trend (3.43 gC m⁻² yr⁻¹) compared to non-shrinking ones (3.07 gC m⁻² yr⁻¹).
- An optimal moderate shrinkage intensity was identified for vegetation greening, showing a hump-shaped relationship with NPP trends.
Conclusions:
- Moderate urban shrinkage can enhance vegetation greening, suggesting potential benefits from passive rewilding.
- Severely shrinking areas require targeted support for ecological restoration like afforestation.
- Non-shrinking urban areas face ecological limits, necessitating densification-resistant planning and urban growth boundaries.
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