Spring Broken: A Risk Analysis of Fatal and Nonfatal Traffic Injuries in Florida

Holidays in the United States can be quite deadly, with more than 500 traffic fatalities on a given holiday. Another uniquely dangerous period is the annual spring break for college students, which starts at the end of February and continues through the first week of April. Although spring break is not a phenomenon across the entire United States, it is especially popular in certain hotspots. In this study, we focus on Florida, the state with the highest number of spring break hotspots in the country. We analyze weekly county-level crash data from the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles that provides information on all motor vehicle crashes (whether fatal or not) reported to law enforcement. We compare the estimates for fatal and nonfatal traffic injuries during spring break to those during the holiday period between Thanksgiving and New Year's Day. While both periods are similar in terms of fatalities, the spikes in nonfatal injuries are more pronounced during spring break. Subgroup analyses provide additional insight. Numerous robustness checks and sensitivity analyses confirm the core findings.