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Philip Cherian1,2, Gautam I Menon1,3

  • 1Department of Physics, Ashoka University, Sonepat, Haryana, India.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study models mpox outbreaks in non-endemic low and middle-income countries, like India. Simulation results inform control strategies for mpox, including vaccination, to curb disease spread.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Mpox outbreaks pose a significant global health concern.
  • Understanding mpox transmission dynamics in non-endemic, low and middle-income countries (LMICs) is crucial for effective control.
  • India serves as a relevant case study for modeling mpox in such settings.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and utilize a simulation model for mpox outbreaks in LMICs.
  • To analyze potential outbreak scenarios and transmission pathways.
  • To evaluate the impact of interventions like vaccination on disease spread.

Main Methods:

  • Agent-based modeling using the BharatSim framework.
  • Network analysis representing sexual contacts (men who have sex with men - MSM) and broader social/household contacts.
  • Simulation of disease spread including heterosexual transmission.

Main Results:

  • Quantification of potential mpox outbreak sizes.
  • Analysis of infection dynamics within and outside the MSM subnetwork.
  • Assessment of the effectiveness of vaccination and prophylactic measures.

Conclusions:

  • The model provides insights into mpox transmission dynamics in LMICs.
  • Findings can inform public health planning and policy for mpox control.
  • Intervention strategies, including vaccination, are critical for curtailing mpox spread.