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State Level Bans on Assault Weapons and Firearms Trafficking to Mexico, 2015-2024
Eugenio Weigend Vargas1, Patrick M Carter1, Jason E Goldstick1
1University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA.
Journal of Interpersonal Violence
|June 30, 2026
Summary
U.S. state-level assault weapons bans are linked to fewer firearms trafficked to Mexico. This effect is stronger for guns used in crimes shortly after purchase, highlighting the impact of state policies on cross-border gun violence.
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Public Health Policy
- International Relations
Background:
- Firearms trafficking across the U.S.-Mexico border is a significant challenge.
- Previous research primarily focused on U.S. federal policies, neglecting state-level impacts.
- A new dataset from Alcohol, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) traces firearms recovered in Mexico to their U.S. retail purchase state.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the association between U.S. state assault weapons bans and the volume of firearms recovered in Mexico.
- To explore the impact of state-level firearm policies on cross-border gun trafficking.
- To assess the influence of time-to-crime on the effectiveness of assault weapons bans.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a dataset of firearms recovered from crimes in Mexico (2015-2024) traced to U.S. retail sellers.
- Employed statistical analyses examining the correlation between state assault weapons bans and recovered firearm volumes.
- Controlled for factors including other firearm policies, border proximity, gun ownership, and export values.
- Categorized analyses by time-to-crime (TTC): <1 year, 1-3 years, and >3 years.
Main Results:
- States with assault weapons bans showed a lower likelihood of firearms recovered in Mexico being traced back to a retail seller.
- The association between assault weapons bans and reduced firearm recovery in Mexico was more pronounced for shorter time-to-crime periods.
- State-level firearm policies demonstrate a measurable impact on international firearms trafficking.
Conclusions:
- U.S. state-level assault weapons bans can reduce the flow of firearms trafficked to Mexico.
- The effectiveness of these bans is more significant when considering firearms used in crimes relatively quickly.
- Future research should incorporate state-level firearm policies to understand firearm violence domestically and internationally, including in Central American and Caribbean nations.
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