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A High-Precision Geo-Spatial-Techno-Economic Framework for CO2 Source-Sink Pairing: Land-Sea Synergy and
Ning Wei1,2, Keyao Lin1,2, Shengnan Liu1
1Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, National Key Laboratory of Rock and Soil Mechanics and Engineering Safety, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, Hubei 430071, China.
Abstract:
China suffers from a severe geospatial mismatch between industrial and energy CO2 emission sources and geological storage sinks, while existing carbon storage assessments lack national-scale high-resolution and land-sea synergy analysis. This study develops a high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) techno-economic framework integrating hierarchical storage capacity, site suitability, and full-chain carbon capture and storage (CCS) source-sink matching to clarify China's geological carbon storage characteristics. The results show nearly balanced onshore-offshore theoretical (2.5 trillion tons) and P50 effective (1.5 trillion tons) storage capacities, with distinct cost gaps: onshore storage costs of 3-10 USD/t and offshore costs of 10-60 USD/t. Benefiting from regional capacity and transportation economic heterogeneity, 60-75% of China's coal-based captured CO2 achieves a levelized cost below 90 USD/t. This fine-scale framework maps national CCS distribution heterogeneities across multiple scales. We further propose cross-regional CCS coalitions via infrastructure sharing, land-sea storage integration, and cross-region carbon corridors to mitigate imbalance and could manage about 80% of coal-sector emissions, providing a scalable solution for Global South countries with unbalanced carbon development.
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