From landfills to resources: Comprehensive characterization of industrial and commercial waste to support recovery...

The increasing generation of industrial and commercial waste (ICW) in urban regions undergoing industrial expansion poses significant challenges for landfill-based waste management systems. This study presents a comprehensive characterization of ICW generated in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area, MX, to support the assessment of its recycling and Waste-to-Energy (WtE) potential through thermal (incineration) and biological (anaerobic digestion) pathways. The study combines statistical evaluation of landfill-received ICW streams with the characterization of heterogeneous commercial waste and segregated industrial fractions to assess their variability, composition, and recovery potential. Daily ICW disposal during 2023-2024 was modeled using probability function fitting, complemented by physicochemical, energetic, elemental, and heavy metal analyses from four sampling campaigns conducted between November 2023 and March 2024. Heterogeneous ICW accounted for 310,782 t y^-1, representing approximately 58% of the total landfill-disposed ICW, and consisted mainly of paper and cardboard (38.1%), plastics (22.8%), and organic waste (14.5%). Most recyclable fractions followed log-normal distributions, whereas wastepaper sludge and segregated food waste exhibited normal distributions associated with more stable generation patterns. The inorganic fraction showed an average lower heating value of 14.3 MJ kg^-1 and chlorine contents below 0.2%, meeting Class 1 RDF quality criteria. Polymeric fractions such as LDPE and HDPE exhibited carbon contents above 60% and LHVs up to 40.8 MJ kg^-1. Heavy metal concentrations were low, while the food fraction exhibited an average biochemical methane potential of 115.2 mL CH₄ g VS^-1. Overall, inorganic and organic ICW fractions could provide up to 217 and 2.7 GWh y^-1 of recoverable energy, respectively, while recycling pathways could substitute nearly 1,500 t of virgin materials annually. These findings demonstrate that detailed ICW characterization supports the identification of priority fractions for recovery and the design of recycling and WtE systems in landfill-dependent waste management contexts.Implications: Addressing the lack of industrial and commercial waste (ICW) data in Latin America, this study presents a methodological framework combining sampling (2023-2024) and probabilistic modeling. Focusing on Monterrey, Mexico, where half a million tons of ICW are landfilled annually, the research provides key data on composition, contaminants, and energy potential. These findings support realistic scenarios for recycling, waste-to-energy valorization, logistical planning, and GHG quantification. This strategic information is vital to strengthen regional regulatory frameworks, guide policy decision-making, and drive public-private investments in infrastructure within landfill-dominated management systems.