Climate-driven expansion of rice virus vector pests threatens global food security

Climate change, rice viruses, and viruses vector pests are major threats of global rice production. The future climate could create more suitable habitats for insect vectors that transmit rice viruses. Here we leveraged large-scale data to examine present and future (2041-2060) suitable habitats of six rice viruses that were transmitted by 10 insect vectors. We associated these habitat predictions with rice cultivation areas to assess potential climate change impacts on rice productions.

Under the future climate, the suitable habitats of rice virus vector pests are expected to expand: the habitat area is projected to increase by 34.97% under the local dispersal scenario and up to >230% under the full dispersal scenario in 2041-2060. Among the six major rice viruses, rice dwarf virus and rice stripe virus pose the greatest threats in India and China, respectively, under the future climate. Emerging risk regions were identified in North America, South America, and Africa. More than 70% of rice cultivation areas in China and India fall into potential risk areas of two or more insect vectors. Under both the local and full dispersal scenarios, these infested areas are projected to increase to approximately 80% during 2041-2060.

In regions facing poleward expansion or potential long-distance invasions, our findings underscore the need for adaptive strategies, including strengthened international quarantine measures, enhanced pest monitoring networks, and early warning systems, to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change on rice production. © 2026 Society of Chemical Industry.