Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jul 3, 2026
11:53
Spatial Multiobjective Optimization of Agricultural Conservation Practices using a SWAT Model and an Evolutionary Algorithm
Published on: December 9, 2012
Evaluating a structured expert elicitation approach for adaptive conservation management based on lessons from
Helen J Mayfield1,2, James Brazill-Boast3, Mick Andren3
1School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Summary
Structured expert elicitation aids adaptive management for threatened species. While predictions sometimes diverged from observed outcomes, the process improved planning and understanding in uncertain environments.
Area of Science:
- Conservation Biology
- Ecology
- Environmental Management
Background:
- Adaptive management of threatened species requires accurate predictions of intervention outcomes.
- Structured expert elicitation is a common method for generating these predictions, but empirical validation is infrequent.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the effectiveness of structured expert elicitation for adaptive management within the New South Wales Saving our Species program.
- To compare expert-predicted species responses to management interventions with observed outcomes over a five-year period.
Main Methods:
- Revisiting six species management plans developed using tailored structured elicitation guidelines.
- Experts reviewed conceptual models and compared predicted management responses with monitoring data.
- Analysis of discrepancies between predicted and observed outcomes, considering factors like new threats and intervention effectiveness.
Main Results:
- Observed outcomes closely matched expert predictions in three out of six case studies.
- Discrepancies were attributed to unanticipated threats and unexpected species responses to interventions.
- The structured elicitation process provided a clear planning framework and facilitated hypothesis generation for unexpected results.
Conclusions:
- Tailored guidelines for structured expert elicitation are valuable for supporting adaptive management.
- Documenting expert knowledge is crucial for managing species in uncertain conditions.
- The elicitation process enhanced collaborative planning and refined managers' understanding despite prediction variations.
Related Concept Videos
02:07Conservation of Declining Populations
Conservation of declining population focuses on ways of detecting, diagnosing, and halting a population decline. The approach uses methods to prevent populations from going extinct.
02:04Conservation of Small Populations
Small population sizes put a species at extreme risk of extinction due to a lack of variation, and a consequent decrease in adaptability. This weakens the chances of survival under pressures such as climate change, competition from other species, or new diseases. Large populations are more likely to survive pressures such as these, as such populations are more likely to harbor individuals that have genetic variants that are adaptive under new stresses. Small populations are much less likely to...
01:21Cognitive Learning
Cognitive learning is based on purposive behavior, incidental learning, and insight learning.
E. C. Tolman's theory of purposive behavior emphasizes that much behavior is goal-directed. He argued that to understand behavior, we must look at the entire sequence of actions leading to a goal. For instance, high school students study hard, not just due to past reinforcement but also to achieve the goal of getting into a good college.
Tolman introduced the idea that behavior is influenced by...
E. C. Tolman's theory of purposive behavior emphasizes that much behavior is goal-directed. He argued that to understand behavior, we must look at the entire sequence of actions leading to a goal. For instance, high school students study hard, not just due to past reinforcement but also to achieve the goal of getting into a good college.
Tolman introduced the idea that behavior is influenced by...
01:57What is Conservation Biology?
Conservation biology is a scientific field that focuses on the preservation of biodiversity in order to protect ecosystems while meeting the needs of the human population. Humans require properly functioning ecosystems to maintain our supply of natural resources, including food, medicines, and building materials.
02:30Naturalistic Observations
If you want to understand how behavior occurs, one of the best ways to gain information is to simply observe the behavior in its natural context. However, people might change their behavior in unexpected ways if they know they are being observed. How do researchers obtain accurate information when people tend to hide their natural behavior? As an example, imagine that your professor asks everyone in your class to raise their hand if they always wash their hands after using the restroom. Chances...
01:14Decision Making: Traditional Method
The process of hypothesis testing based on the traditional method includes calculating the critical value, testing the value of the test statistic using the sample data, and interpreting these values.
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is decided based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to this claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses, out of which a null hypothesis would be a...
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is decided based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to this claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses, out of which a null hypothesis would be a...