Psychosocial Trajectories in Germany Across a Decade of Societal Crises

Adults in midlife and old age in Germany have experienced several societal disruptions in recent years. Earlier crises, the 2015 Refugee Crisis and the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, appeared time-limited, and some evidence suggested many older adults adapted well. Since 2021, however, societal conditions have been shaped by overlapping and persistent challenges, including geopolitical instability, rising living costs, and energy insecurity. These developments raised questions about whether psychosocial functioning in later adulthood may be sensitive to broader contextual change.

We analyzed six waves of longitudinal data from the German Aging Survey (2014-2024; N = 6,001 at baseline), a representative study of adults aged 40 and older. Changes in depressive symptoms, life satisfaction, and loneliness were examined using latent change score models that allowed modeling of gradual trends alongside period-specific deviations. We also tested whether predictors of change differed across two historical time intervals (2014-2017 vs. 2021-2024).

Mean-level changes were small or absent between 2014 and 2017, and changes observed during the early pandemic did not persist. All three indicators shifted, however, after 2021: depressive symptoms and loneliness increased, while life satisfaction declined. These patterns appeared broadly distributed in our representative sample rather than concentrated in specific subgroups. Dispositional optimism showed a stronger association with change during 2021-2024.

The findings suggest that psychosocial functioning in midlife and old age may vary with changing societal conditions. Continued monitoring is needed to determine whether these shifts reflect temporary fluctuations or a longer-term development.