Quantitative analysis of the transmission dynamics of an adenovirus outbreak in a physical training school based on a...

Adenovirus type 7 (AdV-7) frequently causes outbreaks in crowded settings such as military barracks and schools. This study seeks to deepen understanding of individual-level virus transmission mechanisms and examine how intervention timing and stringency shape epidemic trends. Methodological innovations in model construction allow refined description and reconstruction of transmission processes, offering methodological support for epidemic analysis and prediction. Based on the framework of this model, additional simulation models tailored to other scenarios can also be developed. We constructed a time-varying multilevel social contact network (trainees, class monitors, team leaders, company officers) matching field survey data's statistical characteristics, used an individual-based dynamic model to simulate AdV-7 transmission, calibrated parameters via fitting predicted and real incidence data, and verified reliability through sensitivity analysis. Results identified trainees as key transmitters; effective reproduction number (Re) surged above 3 initially and fell below 1 after isolation and contact restrictions took effect on Day 14 following the first index case. New cases declined after a brief surge, consistent with real epidemic trends. Sensitivity analysis revealed significant positive correlations between infection numbers, trainees' susceptibility, and isolation timing. The study confirms the model's validity, showing timely early warning, isolation, and social distancing effectively control the epidemic.