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Moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires humidify the stratosphere
Yifeng Peng1,2, William Randel3, Owen Brian Toon4,5
1College of Environment and Climate, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.
Nature
|July 1, 2026
Summary
Moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires have increased stratospheric water vapour (SWV), a key greenhouse gas. These events, alongside surface temperature trends, significantly impact climate and ozone chemistry.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric Science
- Climate Science
- Ozone Chemistry
Background:
- Stratospheric water vapour (SWV) is a potent greenhouse gas influencing global climate and stratospheric ozone.
- SWV levels are sensitive to natural climate variability and aerosol perturbations.
- Previous research anticipated volcanic eruptions would increase SWV, but observational evidence was limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To provide observational evidence of SWV increases due to volcanic eruptions and wildfires.
- To quantify the contribution of these events to SWV trends.
- To assess the role of aerosol-mediated processes in stratospheric water vapour variability.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of satellite observations of SWV.
- Utilisation of climate model simulations.
- Investigation of aerosol-induced tropopause warming and wildfire self-lofting pathways.
Main Results:
- Moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires since 2005 have systematically increased SWV.
- These events contributed 36 ± 7% to the observed SWV trend (0.1 ppmv at 83 hPa) between 2005-2021.
- Wildfires exhibit an additional self-lofting mechanism for water vapour transport.
Conclusions:
- Episodic aerosol perturbations from volcanic eruptions and wildfires are significant, previously overlooked drivers of SWV variability.
- These aerosol-mediated processes, alongside surface temperature trends, have offset recent SWV decreases.
- Future climate and ozone recovery projections must incorporate these findings, especially with intensifying wildfires.
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