Prediction and Prediction Error in Autism: A Meta-Analysis of Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Results

In autism spectrum condition (ASC), altered priors/predictions or prediction errors have been hypothesized to increase the influence of bottom-up sensory input, relative to top-down prior knowledge. Such alterations could account for several autistic features, but their empirical basis is unclear. In neurotypical (NT) individuals, multiple neuroimaging meta-analyses have aimed to outline domain-general prediction networks of the brain. However, there has not been a similar meta-analysis in autism.

We performed a literature search for functional magnetic resonance imaging and magnetoencephalography studies with autistic participants. The contrasts that explicitly or implicitly involved the processing of priors/predictions and prediction errors were selected. Contrasts were divided into those that reported stronger activation in ASC compared with NT groups (ASC > NT; 8 contrasts; 139 ASC, 150 NT) and vice versa (NT > ASC; 13 contrasts; 261 ASC, 289 NT). The convergence of differences between the groups was then tested using activation likelihood estimation meta-analysis. We also identified 37 contrasts without significant group differences.

ASC > NT did not result in significant convergence. NT > ASC converged in a cluster in the medial frontal gyrus/cingulate gyrus.

We found converging NT > ASC activation differences in an area associated with error monitoring and uncertainty estimation. Our results are generally consistent with notions of altered predictions or prediction errors in autism, pointing to differences at high levels of the information-processing hierarchy. However, we recommend a cautious interpretation, given the limited number of available contrasts and the high proportion of null results.