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Updated: Jul 3, 2026

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Published on: March 31, 2023

Meteorologically Driven Changes in Future Global Air Quality: Physical and Monetized Impacts.

Erin E McDuffie¹, Lee T Murray², Sebastian D Eastham³

¹EPA Office of Atmospheric Protection, Washington, D.C. 20460, United States.

Environmental Science & Technology

|July 2, 2026

Summary

Future air pollution changes may reduce deaths by 180,000 annually by 2100 due to fewer fine particulate matter (PM2.5) deaths, despite increased ozone impacts. This offers significant global health and economic benefits.

Keywords:

air pollution benefit cost meteorological projections mortality

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Split Point Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Thermal-Optical Organic/Elemental Carbon Measurements

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Published on: September 7, 2019

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Last Updated: Jul 3, 2026

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

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Published on: March 31, 2023

Split Point Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Thermal-Optical Organic/Elemental Carbon Measurements

Split Point Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Thermal-Optical Organic/Elemental Carbon Measurements

Published on: September 7, 2019

Area of Science:

Environmental Health Science
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Climate Change Impact Assessment

Background:

Ambient air pollution, including ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), is a major global environmental health risk.
Future air pollution impacts depend on population dynamics and climate-driven meteorological changes affecting pollutant levels.
Previous global-scale assessments of combined meteorological and population impacts on air pollution mortality are limited.

Purpose of the Study:

To quantify the impact of future meteorological and population changes on global air pollution-attributable mortality by 2100.
To estimate the monetized health impacts associated with projected changes in air pollution.
To analyze regional variations in air pollution impacts under different global warming scenarios.

Main Methods:

Utilized output from general circulation, atmospheric chemistry, and health impact models.
Isolated the effects of meteorological changes and population projections on air pollution mortality.
Assessed sensitivities to meteorological projections, health impact functions, and warming scenarios.

Main Results:

Estimated 180,000 fewer annual deaths by 2100 due to meteorologically driven air pollution changes (excluding emission changes).
Projected an annual monetized benefit of $7.3 trillion from reduced PM2.5-attributable mortality, offset by increased ozone mortality.
Identified regional disparities: Northern Hemisphere shows net pollution decrease (nitrate aerosol), Southern Hemisphere shows net increase (ozone, organic aerosol).

Conclusions:

Meteorological changes alone, without emission reductions, are projected to decrease global air pollution mortality by 2100.
Significant regional differences exist, with the Southern Hemisphere facing increased mortality risks from ozone and organic aerosols.
Future air quality and associated health outcomes are highly sensitive to climate change and population trends.