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Inferring epidemiological parameters under an infectious phylogeography model with visitor dynamics.

Albert C Soewongsono¹, Ammon Thompson², Michael J Landis¹

¹Department of Biology, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO 63130.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|July 2, 2026

Summary

Infectious disease outbreaks are influenced by host movement. A new model shows that during the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Europe, returning travelers were more likely to introduce the virus than visitors were to spread it abroad.

Keywords:

Bayesian inference epidemiology host movement infectious diseases phylogeography

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Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Mathematical Biology
Phylogeography

Background:

Infectious diseases spread through host movement, complicating outbreak analysis.
Distinguishing between pathogen introduction by returning travelers versus visitors is challenging.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop a phylogeographic model incorporating visitor dynamics for pathogen spread.
To analyze the role of short-term travel in disease transmission during outbreaks.

Main Methods:

Developed a phylogeographic model based on an epidemiological compartment model with visitor dynamics.
Utilized stationary properties for a computationally tractable phylogenetic approximation.
Derived mathematical conditions for the approximation's accuracy.

Main Results:

SARS-CoV-2 was more frequently "pulled" into home countries by returning travelers than "pushed" abroad by visitors in early European outbreaks.
Visitor models with short trips suggest alternative migration models may underestimate outbreak magnitudes.

Conclusions:

Host movement dynamics, particularly short-term travel, are crucial for accurate epidemiological modeling.
Phylogeographic models incorporating visitor dynamics offer new insights into disease spread patterns.