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Updated: Jul 4, 2026

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Ultra flash cold events under global warming.

Yongli He1,2, Zhanbo Wang1, Xiaodan Guan3,4

  • 1Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China.

Nature Communications
|July 2, 2026
PubMed
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This summary is machine-generated.

Global warming is causing flash cold events to decrease in Eurasia but intensify in North America. This divergence, driven by atmospheric circulation changes, poses a significant energy security risk.

Area of Science:

  • Climatology
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Extreme Weather Events

Background:

  • Global warming is widely expected to reduce extreme cold.
  • However, flash cold (FC) events, characterized by sudden, severe temperature drops, continue to occur.
  • The 2021 North America freeze highlighted the significant risks posed by these events.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the diverging trends of ultra-FC events across Eurasia and North America.
  • To identify the underlying atmospheric dynamics driving these contrasting trends.
  • To assess the ability of current climate models to reproduce these phenomena and their associated risks.

Main Methods:

  • Tracking the spatiotemporal evolution of ultra-FC events.
  • Characterizing the dynamic atmospheric environment associated with these events.

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  • Analyzing atmospheric circulation regimes, including anticyclonic and cyclonic anomalies.

    • Main Results:

    • Ultra-FC events are decreasing over Eurasia but intensifying over North America.
    • This divergence is linked to specific atmospheric circulation anomalies: increased Alaska-Arctic anticyclonic anomalies in North America and weakened Ural-Arctic cyclonic anomalies in Eurasia.
    • Current climate models fail to accurately reproduce these intercontinental divergence patterns and underestimate the associated risks.

    Conclusions:

    • A regional warming paradox exists where specific atmospheric circulation anomalies can override background warming trends.
    • These anomalies create a critical blind spot in predicting and mitigating ultra-FC event risks, particularly for energy security in North America.
    • There is a need to improve climate models to capture these regional dynamics for more accurate extreme weather forecasting.