Perceived psychological consequences of multiple overlapping crises in slovenia: findings from a qualitative study

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, people in Slovenia have faced a series of overlapping crises at both global and national levels, including the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, rising economic costs, and major natural disasters. Although extensive quantitative research has examined pandemic-related mental health outcomes, comparatively little is known about how individuals subjectively perceive multiple overlapping crises, given the cumulative and interactive nature of contemporary crises - situations in which crises across multiple systems become causally entangled and mutually amplify their effects. This study aimed to explore the perceived psychological consequences of multiple overlapping crises among adults in Slovenia, guided by the polycrisis framework.

Using a qualitative research design based on Constructivist Grounded Theory, we conducted semi-structured, in-depth interviews between June and November 2023 with 24 participants (16 women, 8 men; mean age 49 years, range 21-76). Interviews were audio-recorded, manually transcribed, and analyzed using ATLAS.ti 24 software. Analysis involved initial and focused coding, constant comparison, and analytic memo-writing, continuing until theoretical saturation was reached. A total of 274 quotations were coded into 16 final codes.

Three analytical categories of perceived psychological consequences emerged: duration (short-term vs. long-term), valence (positive vs. negative), and level of impact (individual vs. societal). Short-term consequences were predominantly individual-level experiences tied to the acute pandemic period, including negative outcomes (e.g., stress, mental health decline, social polarization) and positive outcomes (e.g., increased time with close ones, time in nature, reduced pressure). Positive long-term consequences included closer relationships and increased gratitude; negative ones included a reduced sense of safety, distrust in authorities, weaker social ties, and a perceived decline in social cohesion.

Based on the analytical findings, we developed the Fortress Wall Model of Psychological Adaptation to Crisis, which conceptualizes the experience of compounding crises as a dynamic, phased psychological process. The findings underscore the need to address people's emotional experiences during acute crisis phases and to maintain monitoring and support of psychological well-being beyond the acute period, as negative consequences - particularly heightened uncertainty, distrust, and a diminished sense of safety - persist long after crises subside and are intensified by subsequent stressors.