Bayesian Covariate-Dependent Circadian Modeling of Rest-Activity Rhythms

We propose a Bayesian covariate-dependent anti-logistic circadian model for analyzing activity data collected via wrist-worn wearable devices. The proposed approach integrates covariates into the modeling of the amplitude and phase parameters, facilitating cohort-level analysis with enhanced flexibility and interpretability. To promote model sparsity, we employ an l ₁-ball projection prior, enabling precise control over complexity while identifying significant predictors. We assess performances on simulated data and then apply the method to real-world actigraphy data from people with epilepsy. Our results demonstrate the model's effectiveness in uncovering complex relationships among demographic, psychological, and medical factors influencing rest-activity rhythms, offering insights for personalized clinical assessments and healthcare interventions.