Optimal parameterization of nonequilibrium generalized master equations from discrete-time experimental data

Kinetic analyses of experiments often require coarse-grained descriptions, but complex systems rarely conform to the widely used modeling assumptions of Markovianity and thermodynamic equilibrium. Memory is indeed a general and often inevitable consequence of coarse-graining. Markov state models (MSMs) are a popular choice of coarse-grained description, but require microstate assignments-which are rarely experimentally tunable-to macrostates that minimize memory. Generalized master equations (GMEs) circumvent this limitation of MSMs by explicitly capturing memory. However, GMEs are difficult to parameterize and usually formally approximate in the experimentally relevant discrete-time setting. Here we introduce a maximum-likelihood-based procedure to parameterize formally exact, physically feasible, discrete-time generalized master equations from experiments and simulations in and out of equilibrium. By adapting algorithms typically used in optimal transport, we construct physical-constraint-satisfying conditional-maximum-likelihood estimators of both exact Nakajima-Zwanzig memory kernels and time-convolutionless GME propagators in discrete time. Applying these estimators to three examples- experimental recordings of Förster-resonance energy-transfer in an ion channel, experimental nanoparticle tracking of a processive molecular motor, and simulated folding of a benchmark protein domain- we recover kinetic parameters including relaxation rates, irreversibilities, dwell times, and first-passage times. These results establish discrete-time GMEs as a physically and statistically principled alternative to MSMs for kinetic analyses of experimental and simulated biomolecular systems.