Diagnostic performance of machine learning-based radiomics models for predicting epidermal growth factor receptor...

ObjectiveThis systematic review and meta-analysis evaluates the diagnostic performance of machine learning-based radiomics models for predicting epidermal growth factor receptor mutation status in Chinese patients with lung adenocarcinoma.MethodsFollowing the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 guidelines and prospectively registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD420251273027), a systematic search of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, Scopus, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang, VIP, and Chinese Biomedical Literature Database was conducted from inception to 31 October 2025. Two reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed bias using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool. A bivariate random-effects model was used to synthesize the data. Subgroup analyses were conducted for three factors: (a) imaging modality (computed tomography vs. positron emission tomography-computed tomography); (b) algorithm type (deep learning vs. conventional machine learning); and (3) validation strategy (external vs. internal).ResultsThirteen studies encompassing 6628 patients were included. The pooled sensitivity was 71% (95% confidence interval: 68-74), the pooled specificity was 81% (95% confidence interval: 78-84), and the summary area under the curve was 0.85 (95% confidence interval: 0.82-0.88). Deep learning models significantly outperformed conventional machine learning models (area under the curve: 0.871 vs. 0.798; P = 0.012). Computed tomography-based models yielded higher accuracy than positron emission tomography-computed tomography-based models (area under the curve: 0.879 vs. 0.828; P = 0.038). Models validated on independent external cohorts demonstrated superior performance compared with those relying solely on internal validation (area under the curve: 0.922 vs. 0.841; P = 0.006). Imaging modality was a significant source of heterogeneity (P < 0.05). No threshold effect or publication bias was detected.ConclusionMachine learning-based radiomics models exhibit promising diagnostic accuracy for the noninvasive prediction of epidermal growth factor receptor mutations in Chinese patients with lung adenocarcinoma. Computed tomography-based deep learning models subjected to independent external validation represent the current optimal approach. However, the retrospective nature and substantial heterogeneity of the included studies necessitate large-scale, prospective, multicenter trials with standardized workflows before clinical translation.